Static conflict dossier

Western Sahara — Frozen Conflict

Western Sahara has been a frozen conflict since the 1991 UN ceasefire between Morocco (which controls ~80% of the territory) and the Polisario Front (backed by Algeria). The 2020 US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in exchange for Israel normalization has reinvigorated Polisario military activity. 173,000 Sahrawi refugees remain in Tindouf camps in Algeria.

Frozen Separatist North Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

Western Sahara has been a frozen conflict since the 1991 UN ceasefire between Morocco (which controls ~80% of the territory) and the Polisario Front (backed by Algeria). The 2020 US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in exchange for Israel normalization has reinvigorated Polisario military activity. 173,000 Sahrawi refugees remain in Tindouf camps in Algeria.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict remains frozen because Morocco's economic investment in the territory (phosphates, fisheries, green hydrogen) makes full withdrawal unthinkable, Algeria finds the conflict useful as strategic leverage against Morocco, and the UN process has been deadlocked since James Baker's resignation in 2004.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 3K-5K UCDP historical
Total displaced 346K UNHCR (Tindouf camps)
IDPs 173K As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 173K UNHCR (Tindouf camps)
Military spend per year USD 210M
Estimated economic loss USD 0.5-1.5B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Low
Spillover risk Medium
Spillover exposure DZ, MR, and MA
Conflict stage Stage 4

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points