Western Sahara — Frozen Conflict
Western Sahara has been a frozen conflict since the 1991 UN ceasefire between Morocco (which controls ~80% of the territory) and the Polisario Front (backed by Algeria). The 2020 US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in exchange for Israel normalization has reinvigorated Polisario military activity. 173,000 Sahrawi refugees remain in Tindouf camps in Algeria.
Dossier summary
Current conflict profile
Western Sahara has been a frozen conflict since the 1991 UN ceasefire between Morocco (which controls ~80% of the territory) and the Polisario Front (backed by Algeria). The 2020 US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in exchange for Israel normalization has reinvigorated Polisario military activity. 173,000 Sahrawi refugees remain in Tindouf camps in Algeria.
Persistence drivers
Why this conflict persists
The conflict remains frozen because Morocco's economic investment in the territory (phosphates, fisheries, green hydrogen) makes full withdrawal unthinkable, Algeria finds the conflict useful as strategic leverage against Morocco, and the UN process has been deadlocked since James Baker's resignation in 2004.
Human and economic impact
Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure
The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.
Outlook
Risk and spillover assessment
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