Static conflict dossier

Sudan Civil War (SAF vs RSF)

The Sudan Civil War began on April 15, 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). What began as a power struggle following the 2021 coup has escalated into one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with widespread atrocities, mass displacement, and famine conditions across Darfur and Khartoum.

Escalating Civil War East Africa and North Africa Updated 12 Jul 2026

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists because both the SAF and RSF have entrenched resource interests — the RSF controls significant gold mining operations in Darfur and Jebel Amer, while SAF-aligned elites control state revenues. Neither side has sufficient military advantage to force a decisive outcome, and foreign sponsors (UAE backing RSF, Egypt and others backing SAF) have no interest in quick resolution.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 150K-300K ACLED/UCDP estimates
Total displaced 12.6M UNHCR/IDMC
IDPs 10.5M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 2.1M UNHCR/IDMC
Military spend per year USD 2.8B
Estimated economic loss USD 15-30B

This dossier includes static summary fields plus linked live conflict tables where the export found related rows.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Critical
Spillover risk Critical
Spillover exposure SS, TD, CF, ET, and EG
Conflict stage Stage 2

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points