Static conflict dossier

Central African Republic Civil War

The CAR civil war pits the government (supported by Wagner Group mercenaries since 2018) against a coalition of rebel groups under the Coalition des Patriotes pour le Changement (CPC). CAR is one of the world's most resource-rich and governance-poor countries, with diamonds, gold, and uranium beneath the conflict zones. Wagner forces control significant mining operations.

Stalemated Civil War Central Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

The CAR civil war pits the government (supported by Wagner Group mercenaries since 2018) against a coalition of rebel groups under the Coalition des Patriotes pour le Changement (CPC). CAR is one of the world's most resource-rich and governance-poor countries, with diamonds, gold, and uranium beneath the conflict zones. Wagner forces control significant mining operations.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists because diamond and gold revenues sustain both government-aligned Wagner forces and rebel groups simultaneously. No party has incentive to fully end a war that funds extraction operations. UN peacekeepers (MINUSCA) lack the mandate to address political-economic drivers.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 20K-50K UCDP/UN
Total displaced 1.5M UNHCR/IDMC
IDPs 730K As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 740K UNHCR/IDMC
Military spend per year USD 400M
Estimated economic loss USD 1.5-4B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk High
Spillover risk Medium
Spillover exposure CM, TD, and CD
Conflict stage Stage 3

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points