Static conflict dossier

Nigeria — Boko Haram / ISWAP Insurgency

The Boko Haram insurgency, now split between ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) and Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād factions, has devastated northeast Nigeria for 15+ years. ISWAP has emerged as the dominant faction and controls rural Lake Chad Basin territory, while conducting regular attacks on military outposts and civilian communities.

Active Insurgency West Africa and Sahel Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

The Boko Haram insurgency, now split between ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) and Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād factions, has devastated northeast Nigeria for 15+ years. ISWAP has emerged as the dominant faction and controls rural Lake Chad Basin territory, while conducting regular attacks on military outposts and civilian communities.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The insurgency persists due to extreme poverty and unemployment in northeast Nigeria, perception of government corruption and abuse by security forces, ISWAP's superior governance model (providing basic services in controlled areas), Lake Chad Basin geography enabling cross-border movement, and difficulty coordinating a multinational military response.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 35K-60K UCDP/UN estimates
Total displaced 2.4M IDMC/UNHCR
IDPs 2.1M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 330K IDMC/UNHCR
Military spend per year USD 2.3B
Estimated economic loss USD 4-10B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk High
Spillover risk High
Spillover exposure NE, TD, and CM
Conflict stage Stage 3

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points