Static conflict dossier

Sahel Regional Security Crisis

The Sahel crisis is a regional phenomenon rather than a single conflict — a belt of intersecting jihadist insurgencies, military coups, governance failures, and humanitarian emergencies stretching from Mauritania to Chad. JNIM and ISGS operate across borders. Three coup states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) have formed the Alliance of Sahel States and expelled Western forces. The entire coastal West Africa region (Ghana, Togo, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal) faces active spillover risk.

Escalating Insurgency West Africa and Sahel Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

The Sahel crisis is a regional phenomenon rather than a single conflict — a belt of intersecting jihadist insurgencies, military coups, governance failures, and humanitarian emergencies stretching from Mauritania to Chad. JNIM and ISGS operate across borders. Three coup states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) have formed the Alliance of Sahel States and expelled Western forces. The entire coastal West Africa region (Ghana, Togo, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal) faces active spillover risk.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The regional crisis is self-reinforcing: each country's instability exports insurgents and refugees to neighbors; governance failures are structural across the region; climate change reduces agricultural livelihoods; and the expulsion of French/Western forces has not been replaced with equivalent capability.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 40K-80K ACLED Sahel aggregate
Total displaced 4.2M UNHCR/IDMC
IDPs 3.5M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 700K UNHCR/IDMC
Military spend per year USD 2.8B
Estimated economic loss USD 15-35B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Critical
Spillover risk Critical
Spillover exposure SN, GN, CI, GH, TG, and BJ
Conflict stage Stage 2

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points