Static conflict dossier

Burkina Faso — Jihadist Insurgency

Burkina Faso has experienced rapid conflict deterioration since 2015, accelerating after two coups in 2022. JNIM and ISGS control an estimated 40% of the territory. The government, now led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, has expelled French forces, closed French media, and aligned with Russia/Wagner. Burkina Faso now has one of the worst food insecurity crises in Africa.

Escalating Insurgency West Africa and Sahel Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

Burkina Faso has experienced rapid conflict deterioration since 2015, accelerating after two coups in 2022. JNIM and ISGS control an estimated 40% of the territory. The government, now led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, has expelled French forces, closed French media, and aligned with Russia/Wagner. Burkina Faso now has one of the worst food insecurity crises in Africa.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The insurgency is sustained by spill-over from Mali, deep governance failures across the Sahel, Wagner Group's inability to improve security despite replacing French forces, gold mining regions providing conflict financing, and inter-community violence that jihadists exploit to recruit.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 12K-20K ACLED estimates
Total displaced 2.2M IDMC/UNHCR
IDPs 2.1M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 60K IDMC/UNHCR
Military spend per year USD 560M
Estimated economic loss USD 2.5-6B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Critical
Spillover risk Critical
Spillover exposure ML, NE, GH, CI, and TG
Conflict stage Stage 2

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points