Static conflict dossier

Mali — Sahel Jihadist Insurgency

The Mali conflict began with the 2012 Tuareg uprising and subsequent jihadist takeover of northern Mali. French Barkhane operation (2014-2022) failed to defeat JNIM and ISGS. Following the 2021 coup, Mali's military junta expelled French forces and brought in Wagner Group. Violence has spread dramatically into central Mali and across the Sahel belt. In 2023 Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after leaving ECOWAS.

Escalating Insurgency West Africa and Sahel Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

The Mali conflict began with the 2012 Tuareg uprising and subsequent jihadist takeover of northern Mali. French Barkhane operation (2014-2022) failed to defeat JNIM and ISGS. Following the 2021 coup, Mali's military junta expelled French forces and brought in Wagner Group. Violence has spread dramatically into central Mali and across the Sahel belt. In 2023 Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after leaving ECOWAS.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists due to the structural failure of the Sahel state system, marginalization of Tuareg/Fulani/pastoral communities, jihadist organizations' superior local intelligence networks, gold and smuggling revenues funding JNIM, and the geopolitical vacuum left by French withdrawal now partly filled by Russian Wagner forces who have not improved security outcomes.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 10K-25K ACLED/UCDP
Total displaced 555K UNHCR/IDMC
IDPs 375K As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 180K UNHCR/IDMC
Military spend per year USD 1.2B
Estimated economic loss USD 3-8B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Critical
Spillover risk Critical
Spillover exposure NE, BF, SN, GN, and CI
Conflict stage Stage 2

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points