Static conflict dossier

South Sudan — Persistent Conflict

South Sudan's civil war, beginning in 2013 between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, has created one of Africa's worst protracted crises. Despite a 2018 peace agreement, violence continues. South Sudan has Africa's largest oil reserves south of Sudan, which are central to the conflict's political economy.

Active Civil War East Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

South Sudan's civil war, beginning in 2013 between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, has created one of Africa's worst protracted crises. Despite a 2018 peace agreement, violence continues. South Sudan has Africa's largest oil reserves south of Sudan, which are central to the conflict's political economy.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists because oil revenues — approximately USD 1.5bn/year — are captured by Kiir and Machar factions through parallel oil ministry structures, creating no incentive for genuine peace. Ethnic Dinka-Nuer rivalry provides mobilization framework, and regional neighbors use South Sudan as a proxy space.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 190K-400K UCDP/LSE estimates
Total displaced 4.4M UNHCR
IDPs 2.2M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 2.2M UNHCR
Military spend per year USD 1.1B
Estimated economic loss USD 3-8B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk High
Spillover risk High
Spillover exposure SD, UG, and ET
Conflict stage Stage 3

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points