Static conflict dossier

Ethiopia — Amhara Conflict (Fano)

Following the Tigray peace agreement of November 2022, a new conflict erupted in the Amhara region between government forces and Fano militia groups. The conflict intensified after the government moved to disarm regional forces in April 2023, triggering a Fano insurgency across Amhara and Oromia. Ethiopia's internal fragmentation continues to strain Africa's second most populous nation.

Active Civil War East Africa and Horn Of Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

Following the Tigray peace agreement of November 2022, a new conflict erupted in the Amhara region between government forces and Fano militia groups. The conflict intensified after the government moved to disarm regional forces in April 2023, triggering a Fano insurgency across Amhara and Oromia. Ethiopia's internal fragmentation continues to strain Africa's second most populous nation.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists due to Amhara political grievances over loss of territory (Welkait/Raya), distrust of federal government intentions after the Tigray war, and the strength of decentralised Fano militia networks that have deep community roots.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 5K-15K ACLED estimates
Total displaced 1.5M IDMC/UNHCR
IDPs 1.4M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 120K IDMC/UNHCR
Military spend per year USD 500M
Estimated economic loss USD 2-5B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk High
Spillover risk Medium
Spillover exposure ER and SD
Conflict stage Stage 2

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points