Static conflict dossier

Somalia — Al-Shabaab Insurgency

Al-Shabaab has waged an insurgency against the Somali Federal Government and AMISOM/ATMIS peacekeeping forces since 2006. Despite military setbacks, the group controls significant rural territory, runs parallel taxation systems, and conducts regular terrorist attacks in Mogadishu, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa. It is the largest active jihadist organization in sub-Saharan Africa by territorial control.

Active Insurgency East Africa and Horn Of Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

Al-Shabaab has waged an insurgency against the Somali Federal Government and AMISOM/ATMIS peacekeeping forces since 2006. Despite military setbacks, the group controls significant rural territory, runs parallel taxation systems, and conducts regular terrorist attacks in Mogadishu, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa. It is the largest active jihadist organization in sub-Saharan Africa by territorial control.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

Al-Shabaab persists through clan-based recruitment in regions where the federal government provides no services, control of taxation on trade routes and agricultural land, ideological appeal in areas of extreme poverty, and governance failures that make the group the de facto authority in parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 25K-60K UCDP battle-deaths + ACLED
Total displaced 4.8M UNHCR/IDMC
IDPs 3.6M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 1.2M UNHCR/IDMC
Military spend per year USD 840M
Estimated economic loss USD 3-8B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk High
Spillover risk High
Spillover exposure KE and ET
Conflict stage Stage 3

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points