Static conflict dossier

Horn of Africa — Post-Tigray Instability

The Tigray War (2020-2022) between Ethiopian federal forces (with Eritrean alliance) and TPLF was among the deadliest conflicts globally in the 21st century. The November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement formally ended hostilities but justice mechanisms are absent, reconstruction has not begun, Tigray remains blockaded, and Eritrean forces have not fully withdrawn.

De Escalating Hybrid East Africa and Horn Of Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

The Tigray War (2020-2022) between Ethiopian federal forces (with Eritrean alliance) and TPLF was among the deadliest conflicts globally in the 21st century. The November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement formally ended hostilities but justice mechanisms are absent, reconstruction has not begun, Tigray remains blockaded, and Eritrean forces have not fully withdrawn.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

Latent instability remains because Eritrean forces still occupy parts of western Tigray, the peace deal has no accountability mechanism, displaced Tigrayans have not returned, and Abiy Ahmed faces additional internal conflicts in Amhara and Oromia simultaneously.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 300K-600K Ghent University / UCDP
Total displaced 1.6M UNHCR
IDPs 1.5M As of 1 Jun 2024
Refugees 60K UNHCR
Military spend per year USD 1.4B
Estimated economic loss USD 10-25B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Medium
Spillover risk Medium
Spillover exposure SD, DJ, and ER
Conflict stage Stage 5

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points