Static conflict dossier

Libya — Ongoing Political-Military Fracture

Libya fractured after the NATO-backed fall of Gaddafi in 2011 and has never reconsolidated. Two rival administrations — Government of National Unity (Tripoli) and Government of National Stability (Benghazi/east) — control a divided country. Libya is a critical migration hub, arms proliferation source into the Sahel, and an oil producer whose revenues fund both factions.

Frozen Civil War North Africa Updated 12 Jul 2026
All conflicts Open map Methodology

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists because oil revenues (USD 2-3bn/year) are split between east and west with no agreed formula, and because Turkey (supporting Tripoli), Russia/UAE/Egypt (supporting east) have contrasting strategic interests and no urgency to force resolution.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 15K-30K UCDP historical
Total displaced 355K UNHCR/IOM
IDPs 135K As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 220K UNHCR/IOM
Military spend per year USD 3.8B
Estimated economic loss USD 2-5B

This dossier includes static summary fields plus linked live conflict tables where the export found related rows.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk Medium
Spillover risk High
Spillover exposure TN, DZ, EG, ML, and NE
Conflict stage Stage 4

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