Mozambique — Cabo Delgado Insurgency
Ansar al-Sunna (locally known as Al-Shabaab, distinct from Somali group) has waged an insurgency in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado since 2017. The province sits above the world's largest natural gas discoveries — Rovuma Basin LNG projects worth USD 60bn+. RWANDESE and SADC forces have helped push insurgents from major towns but rural areas remain contested.
Dossier summary
Current conflict profile
Ansar al-Sunna (locally known as Al-Shabaab, distinct from Somali group) has waged an insurgency in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado since 2017. The province sits above the world's largest natural gas discoveries — Rovuma Basin LNG projects worth USD 60bn+. RWANDESE and SADC forces have helped push insurgents from major towns but rural areas remain contested.
Persistence drivers
Why this conflict persists
The conflict persists due to extreme economic exclusion of local communities from LNG wealth, historical marginalization of the Muslim north by the Frelimo government in Maputo, Islamic radicalization channelled through Tanzanian networks, and the strategic resource interest that makes full military resolution difficult without addressing underlying inequality.
Human and economic impact
Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure
The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.
Outlook
Risk and spillover assessment
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