Static conflict dossier

Mozambique — Cabo Delgado Insurgency

Ansar al-Sunna (locally known as Al-Shabaab, distinct from Somali group) has waged an insurgency in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado since 2017. The province sits above the world's largest natural gas discoveries — Rovuma Basin LNG projects worth USD 60bn+. RWANDESE and SADC forces have helped push insurgents from major towns but rural areas remain contested.

Active Insurgency East Africa and Southern Africa Updated 27 Mar 2026

Dossier summary

Current conflict profile

Ansar al-Sunna (locally known as Al-Shabaab, distinct from Somali group) has waged an insurgency in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado since 2017. The province sits above the world's largest natural gas discoveries — Rovuma Basin LNG projects worth USD 60bn+. RWANDESE and SADC forces have helped push insurgents from major towns but rural areas remain contested.

Persistence drivers

Why this conflict persists

The conflict persists due to extreme economic exclusion of local communities from LNG wealth, historical marginalization of the Muslim north by the Frelimo government in Maputo, Islamic radicalization channelled through Tanzanian networks, and the strategic resource interest that makes full military resolution difficult without addressing underlying inequality.

Human and economic impact

Displacement, fatalities, and economic pressure

Estimated fatalities 5K-8K ACLED/UNHCR
Total displaced 1.2M UNHCR/IDMC
IDPs 1.1M As of 1 Dec 2024
Refugees 58K UNHCR/IDMC
Military spend per year USD 350M
Estimated economic loss USD 2-5B

The live side tables for actors, displacement timeseries, economy rows, forecasts, events, and timeline are currently empty for this conflict, so this static dossier uses the verified inline conflict record.

Outlook

Risk and spillover assessment

Escalation risk High
Spillover risk Medium
Spillover exposure TZ
Conflict stage Stage 2

Related dossiers

Nearby pressure points