📋 Methodology
Data sources, uncertainty framework, and how AfroConflict works
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
AfroConflict aggregates data from ACLED, UCDP, UNHCR, IDMC, SIPRI, the World Bank, UN agencies, and curated research literature. All figures are estimates with inherent uncertainty ranges. Fatality figures in particular are notoriously difficult to verify in active conflict zones and should be treated as order-of-magnitude estimates only. Displacement figures lag real-time conditions by weeks to months. Economic impact figures are modelled estimates, not official accounting.
AfroConflict is an analytical tool, not a news service. It does not take political positions on any conflict. Conflict classification (who is the aggressor, which group is "rebel" vs "state") reflects standard academic definitions from UCDP/ACLED and does not constitute editorial endorsement. Conflict economy actors are listed based on evidence-graded research and UN Panel of Experts reports — these are research listings, not legal determinations, and do not constitute accusations of wrongdoing.
Scenario forecasts are model estimates based on analyst research and historical conflict patterns. They are not predictions and carry wide uncertainty ranges. The base case represents the most likely trajectory given current conditions; optimistic and worst-case scenarios represent plausible but less likely outcomes. No forecast should be used as the sole basis for operational, financial, or safety decisions.
Data Sources
| Source | What We Use It For | Update Frequency | Access |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACLED Armed Conflict Location & Event Data |
Conflict events (battles, explosions, protests, fatalities), geo-coordinates, actor names, event dates | Weekly (lagged ~1 week) | API Key Required |
| UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Program |
Conflict classification (interstate/intrastate/non-state), conflict start dates, battle-related deaths (annual) | Annual | Open |
| UNHCR Refugee Data Finder |
Refugee counts by country of origin, asylum country, year. Returnee figures. | Annual (mid-year updates) | Open API |
| IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre |
IDP (internally displaced persons) counts by country and crisis, new displacement events | Annual (emergency updates) | Open |
| SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute |
Military expenditure data (% of GDP, USD constant), arms transfers, conflict databases | Annual | Open |
| World Bank Open Data | GDP growth rate (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), military expenditure % GDP (MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS), poverty headcount | Annual (1–2yr lag) | Open API |
| UN Panel of Experts Reports | Conflict economy actors (smuggling networks, arms brokers, resource extraction financing), sanctions lists | Per-mandate cycle (~annual) | Open |
| FAO / WFP | Food insecurity data (IPC phases), famine declarations, conflict-food nexus analysis | Periodic | Open |
| Analyst Research Manual curation |
Scenario forecasts, stage classifications, foreign backer analysis, conflict narrative summaries, economy actor evidence | As updated via admin | Internal |
Conflict Classification Framework
- Interstate — War between two or more states
- Intrastate — Civil war / rebellion within a state
- Non-state — Fighting between non-government armed groups
- Communal — Ethnically or religiously motivated violence
- Jihadist Insurgency — Religiously-motivated armed groups
- Coup / Political Crisis — Violent transfer of state power
- ● Critical — Active mass casualty events, territory rapidly changing hands
- ● High — Frequent combat, significant civilian casualties
- ● Medium — Sporadic violence, ongoing but contained
- ● Low — Infrequent incidents, mostly stable
- ● Minimal — Largely resolved, rare isolated incidents
- 1 — Pre-conflict: Tension, no armed violence
- 2 — Escalation: Armed clashes intensifying
- 3 — War: Full-scale armed conflict
- 4 — Stalemate: Neither side can win militarily
- 5 — De-escalation: Ceasefire, peace talks
- 6 — Post-conflict: Settlement, reconstruction
Conflict Economy Methodology
The conflict economy section tracks actors who benefit financially from the continuation of a conflict. This is distinct from tracking combatants. Economy actors include: natural resource extractors (licit and illicit), arms suppliers, humanitarian aid contractors, foreign businesses operating in conflict zones, and financial intermediaries.
- ● Confirmed — Court judgment, UN PoE finding, or documented transaction
- ● Strong — Corroborating investigative journalism + official report
- ● Circumstantial — Single credible source, plausible but unconfirmed
- ● Alleged — Reported but disputed or unverified
- UN Panel of Experts final reports
- International Criminal Court indictments
- OFAC / EU sanctions designations
- NGO investigative reports (Global Witness, PAX)
- Investigative journalism (Reuters, BBC Africa Eye)
- Academic peer-reviewed conflict finance literature
Inclusion of any entity in the conflict economy section does not constitute an accusation of criminal wrongdoing. These are research listings for analytical purposes. For legal determinations, consult official sanctions databases and court records. Corrections can be submitted via the contact form below.
Forecast Methodology
AfroConflict scenario forecasts are manually developed by analysts using a structured scenario planning framework, informed by historical conflict duration data and current conflict indicators.
Assumes best-case resolution mechanisms activate: effective mediation, military stalemate leading to negotiations, foreign backer disengagement, or battlefield reversal that forces a settlement. Duration estimate reflects time to ceasefire + initial settlement. Trigger conditions are explicitly listed.
Most probable trajectory given current indicators: continuation of existing dynamics, incremental changes in control, no dramatic escalation or resolution. Based on similar historical conflict duration patterns from UCDP data and analyst assessment of current conflict dynamics.
Assumes escalation vectors activate: regional spillover, increased foreign military involvement, humanitarian catastrophe, or political collapse in affected states. Duration may be "indefinite" for entrenched conflicts. Trigger conditions identify what would push toward this scenario.
Update Frequency
| Data Type | Sync Method | Frequency | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conflict Events (battles, fatalities) | ACLED API (automated) | Daily at 03:00 UTC | 1–7 days |
| Displacement Figures (IDPs, refugees) | UNHCR API (automated) | Daily at 03:00 UTC | Weeks to months |
| GDP / Economic Indicators | World Bank API (automated) | Daily at 03:00 UTC | 1–2 years |
| Conflict Narratives / Stage | Manual (admin panel) | As events warrant | Variable |
| Scenario Forecasts | Manual (admin panel) | Per-conflict review cycle | Variable |
| Economy Actors | Manual (admin panel) | When new reports published | Variable |
Scope and Limitations
- Armed conflicts with ≥25 battle-related deaths/year (UCDP threshold)
- Active insurgencies and protracted low-intensity conflicts
- Displacement crises linked to armed conflict
- Global conflicts with direct African economic impact (commodity, trade, remittance)
- Political violence by non-state armed groups
- Criminal gang violence (unless meeting UCDP threshold)
- Electoral violence below armed conflict threshold
- Individual terrorist incidents (tracked in events but not primary)
- Historical resolved conflicts (archive only)
- Near-real-time battlefield tracking
Corrections & Contact
We take data accuracy seriously. If you identify an error in conflict data, believe an economy actor entry is incorrect, or have access to primary source documents that would improve our analysis, please contact us.
Model version: manual-v1 · Last methodology review: March 2026 · AfroConflict is a tool of AfroTools Africa Ltd. · Not affiliated with any government, military, or intelligence agency.